JC穆爾在線
從科學的角度看時事。

歸檔分類為“全球變暖”

書評:抗綠龍

星期二,2012年10月4日

 

前言:我第一次遇到綠龍帕布里烏斯終極版上的一篇博客文章,他介紹:“現在,這裡是一個新型的緊迫性和不合理性氣候災難預言者的預言的特徵暗流分析。 這也解釋了困擾熟悉的說教和傳教我們從氣候變化fearmongers的忍受。“好奇,我找到了一個耐高溫的由詹姆斯Wanliss博士綠龍 ,長老會學院物理系副教授的文章 發現任何宗教或科學的論據,可能解決的問題,在文章中,我寫了一出戲,將來可能會舉行後,我收到了我的戲的批判博士Wanliss博士Wanliss,普布利烏斯和他們followers.Sometime的為隨後提供給寫一個適當的審查如果博士Wanliss會送我一份,他照辦了。 Wanliss博士說,他寫的書,因為他一直受到環保欺負部分。 這當然是一個非常糟糕的事情,但是回答通常是一種不正確的反應和報復常常會傷害他人比其意的受害者。 如果您發現與環保,主流宗教,或相信,我們應該對地球的好管家,你可能會覺得讀這本書,而欺負。

這本書不是聲稱“提供科學或經濟的答案,”因為這是通過,但這些資源和結束註釋不準確代表的科學家,經濟學家,或環保的意見,“多尾出現的優秀資源。” - 但從極端的立場仔細挑選,因為是他的例子。 博士Wanliss給素食者的例子,善待動物組織成員,生態恐怖分子,環境極端分子的人認為男人是“無用的呼吸” - 並試圖聲稱他們是代表基督教的管理運動。 他們都沒有。 環保可能需要你做出負責任的選擇,但並不意味著他們要“控制你的生活,吃飯,開車,甚至您使用讀取的光。”環保可能有一個目標實現的性質和可持續性的平衡但Wanliss博士聲稱:“人的生命,直接暴力男子的十字線。”可持續發展的地方,是基督教管理運動中那些暴力的男人?

康沃爾聯盟:這本書出版由康聯盟選擇作為一個象徵反對基督教教會增長的環保綠龍。 康沃爾聯盟介紹自己作為一個基層的基督教運動。 它沒有透露其資金來源,但它的許多路徑來自企業和化石燃料的利益和它的消息肯定是對他們有利。 博士Wanliss說,他沒有收到來自聯盟的利潤只能從書上的特許權使用費和提前。 該聯盟已經產生了一系列的影片,基於抗綠龍 ,調戲其持有教會。 在影片的宣傳,大部分是有點道理。 他們似乎設計更多的保護,而不是保護地球,或取決於生存在地球上的人的化石燃料公司的利潤。

很明顯已採取的許多教堂在20世紀80年代初,通過燃燒化石燃料釋放的二氧化碳是造成環境的變化會影響人類,特別是那些窮人和土著社會,沒有資源,以適應不斷變化的氣候。鼓勵根據良好管理環保的報表,有些特別提到的溫室氣體的威脅。 例如,其中博士Wanliss教長老會大學主辦的面額在1989年指出,重申在2008年,“全球大氣變暖的趨勢(溫室效應)表示嚴重關切,最嚴重的全球健康的環境挑戰之一,安全與穩定,人類生活和自然生態系統。“

龍:關於這本書的防塵罩綠龍是一個非常難看的龍,但它的心臟是什麼,可能有誤判博士Wanliss。 Dragonheart和莎菲拉阿拉貢德拉科雖然有些神秘的龍被描繪為罪惡,傳授他們的古老智慧對人類和幫助他們在危機的時代。 它是在的飛龍幫助了貪婪的公司為了礦石破壞地球和家園的Na'vi驅動器。 也許是綠龍被醜化的康沃爾聯盟,使我們不會理會它的消息。

  科學:雖然博士Wanliss是一個物理學家,在這本書是非常小氣候物理。 他似乎已經到達許多他對氣候科學的意見,而不是從同行評議的文獻,但戈爾和馬丁Durkin的國產電影,這既不是科學家。 博士Wanliss指出在難以忽視的真相“的錯誤,和完全拒絕。 然而,戈爾獲得了諾貝爾和平獎,他的環保工作,他的電影獲得了奧斯卡獎。 電影也有它的天在法庭Dimmock至 ​​五國務卿教育 ,西裝,試圖阻止一個難以忽視的真相“在英國的教育用途。 法院裁定,雖然影片有一些錯誤,它大大科研和事實成立後,可以顯示。

博士Wanliss擁抱馬丁 Durkin的電影, 全球變暖大騙局 ,雖然它是基於壞科學和欺詐行為的基礎。 我怎麼知道? Durkin的先生給他的印象是地球物理學家,但他的程度是在中世紀的歷史和金融新聞。 影片歪曲了工作中出現的一些科學家。 例如,弗里斯 - 克里斯滕森博士說,“圖部分組成的製作,作為真正的數據。”他應該知道,因為這是他的研究,被扭曲,以支持索賠,最近的氣候變化結果太陽活動。 此外,卡爾·文施博士指出,電影使用了他的數據,但歪曲。 IHE海洋將不得不釋放更多的二氧化碳比他們吸收,所以,他不可能要求它欺詐。 影片還歪曲美國宇航局的溫度記錄,可以很容易地檢查東西。 這兩個圖形是下面的,Durkin的左側顯示如何重新繪製的圖形,以支持他的說法,今天的全球氣候變暖的大部分發生在1940年之前拍攝的畫面。

同意2010年StanfordUniversity 調查發現97-98%的氣候研究人員最活躍的氣候科學出版1372氣候科學家認為全球變暖正在發生,人類活動的主要因素。 研究表明,全球變暖正在造成許多不良變化在地球上,並沒有自然因素有顯著負責。

生態:博士 wanliss生態或物種間的相互關係的原則,似乎並不知道,他說:“我們一直,在過去的幾十年裡,開始有利於環境的社會環境,對宇宙的轉變 - 北極熊,樹木和錯誤 - 人類,“嗯,會在哪裡,我們不熊,樹木,環境,和Umm ...錯誤? 他認為:“一個物種的破壞可以大大受益許多人”和那個男人有權利追捕抹香鯨滅絕,如果我們需要的石油。 然而,他似乎並不知道,許多物種上的營養成分,整個海洋的鯨分發依賴。 客運鴿子,曾經是一個重要的食物來源,被獵殺滅絕。 和百日咳起重機和水牛幾乎永遠消失,但保存機會和巨大的努力保育滅絕。 我們想念他們嗎? 這本書講述的故事被用來測試煤礦安全的金絲雀,用它指出,一些鳥類愛好者可能反對以上的礦工,把鳥的安全。 生態學家現在告訴我們,許多物種從地球上消失,更多的是受全球氣候變暖的威脅。 我們希望我們的子孫進入一個煤礦,在加那利群島死亡?

經濟學:第和貿易被認為是自由市場的解決方案,以減少二氧化碳排放量。 它可能不是最好的,但它會幫助,這似乎是國家標題的方式。 博士Wanliss認為反對,因為他認為這將導致建立一個世界政府,因為其成本高。 我們都有著相同的氣氛,這是必要的,所有工業化國家和發展中國家的合作,但這不是建立一個世界政府。 博士Wanliss聲稱帽和貿易法規的成本將達到每年成本“四人家庭平均為120,000元”。 該值是不切實際的高 - 它也可以忽略不採取行動的成本。 美國國會預算辦公室估計 ,到2020年的上限和貿易方案的成本,平均每戶每年約$ 175。

它有可能對全球變暖的成本估計無所作為。 斯特恩的報告中,使用從正式經濟模式的結果,估計氣候變化的總成本和風險,相當於每年至少 ​​失去全球GDP的5%。 並加以解決,成本可能上升到20%或更多的國內生產總值到2050年 - 和增加環境災難的風險。 2010年美國國內生產總值的5%,將提供727億美元的環境成本。 減少二氧化碳排放量也將減少微粒援引美國肺臟協會的主要原因38000心髒病發作和過早死亡,以及每年150萬例急性支氣管炎和哮喘加重-他們估計有$ 281億美元的經濟成本。 這兩個加起來每年約為1.01萬億美元,這只是美方。 和什麼樣的代價,我們應該把過早死亡?

宗教:博士 wanliss人,其他物種,而地球的資源之間的關係的看法是基於時學說Dominionism。 他立足這個信念,他的解釋創世記1:28“神就賜福給他們,上帝說,對他們說,要生養,繁殖,遍滿地面,治理這:統治,並在海中的魚,在空中的飛鳥,並在每一個有生命的東西,搖動在地上。“從那裡,他使用了精心挑選的經文,認為”人類地球的灌裝和治港可以釋放它從束縛。“這是他認為這將帶來第二次來這會使的努力,以保護和維持地球無用。

但是,是地球上沒有增長? 現在有7億人在這個星球上,在我們目前的出生率,人口將本世紀末再翻一番。 我們並沒有建立統治地球? 我們現在有魚類和野味,捕撈限額的法律,國際條約,以保護其他物種作為我們的需求增長,直到我們威脅到他們的存在? 在博士Wanliss'的說法,需要注意的是,二來不會發生直到男子已建立了基督教的統治。 在地球上有許多宗教,即使是​​基督徒,聖經有許多不同的解釋。 他認為是必要的,是不太可能發生在未來50年,即使沒有,有沒有保證,Dominionism是真正的宗教。

那些認為基督教管理認為統治意味著“德政”。 它似乎合理,上帝會讓天堂和地球和所有物種,宣布他們好,然後給男人許可摧毀他們,如果他願意嗎? 如果他們這樣做損害其他人的生命和資源,並做一些男人的權利,尋求統治? 博士Wanliss使一個特殊的權柄是不是統治;然而,想支配和利用利潤環境的人肯定會發現他的論點非常有用。

當地人:這本書聲稱的環保運動,是“可怕的有害環境和人類,尤其是窮人”,在一個點上聲稱,環保可能是數百萬人死亡負責。 這是最憤世嫉俗的和錯誤的要求,環保是某種在世界上的貧窮國家的死亡和損害的責任。 全球變暖正在改變的環境和惡劣天氣事件,特別是乾旱的概率增加。 去年在非洲之角的旱災導致窮人之間的普遍的飢荒,許多人死亡。 克什米爾人民的關注,養活他們在夏天的溪流冰川正在消退 - 更少的水可用。 西藏夏爾巴人擔心他們的村莊可能被淹沒,現在每年夏天舉行不穩定的冰壩的冰川融化,形成的湖泊。

在格陵蘭島的因紐特人無法使用他們的傳統獵場,在冰太薄,為他們的狗雪橇穿越。 在北極的人有移動的沿海村莊,保持他們從公海的行動,全年用於冰波被侵蝕。 其內陸的村莊受到威脅,因為,它們現在建凍土在今年夏天成為一個泥潭。 他們被迫改變生活方式,持續數百年。 雖然有些人可能適應,他們的生活和文化的方式將被摧毀,許多人可能會結束之間的貧困和失業。

人口:博士 wanliss說,神吩咐我們填補了地球,我們將有多少個孩子,我們應該讓上帝決定。 但沒有男人和女人有自由意志,並有權決定這樣的事情嗎? 會發生什麼事時,地球是滿? 地球上的人口已超過7億人,在我們目前的人口出生率將達到14億美元在21世紀的後半部的某個時候。 地球是有限的證據表明,地球的承載能力是介於10至12億美元。 當一個人口超過其環境承載能力,通常有一個巨大的人口死亡。 對於我們來說,這可能意味著數十億人通過飢餓和爭奪資源的戰爭死亡。

謹慎:博士 wanless認為,人有一個顯著的能力的原因,這是千真萬確的。   上帝給了我們科學,使我們可以理解,通過觀察和理性的性質。 科學研究表明,二氧化碳是破壞地球的污染物,更在未來會做。 環保局已決定,二氧化碳是一種危害,可根據“清潔空氣法”規定,最高法院的裁決維持。 博士Wanliss反對行動,糾正問題,並認為,地球和基督教統治時,神必使我們的問題消失。 如果他是錯的? 我們將有一個非常完整的,通過我們自己的無知和一個非常炎熱的,荒涼的地球,而不是通過上帝的旨意。 綠龍,雖然一個神話生物博士Wanliss創建,將是一個謹慎的好象徵。

反抗?博士 wanliss建議我們根據他的宗教觀點和個人的經營理念,抵制綠龍。 他的書肯定會鼓勵一些有趣的討論關於希伯來字的含義,解釋經文,自由意志的意義,責任基督徒走向人類,其他物種和地球本身。 這些討論應該發生在科學家,神學家和哲學家誰擁有的知識來捍衛自己的想法。 然而,它似乎是錯誤的使用的權力和尊重人部長和聖經批評基督徒相信在良好的管理。 康沃爾聯盟做到了這一點,作為抗綠龍與利潤動機對齊。 耶穌表明,在“聖經”憤怒的唯一的一次是當他駕車從廟的貨幣兌換。 耶穌會如何感到康沃爾使用博士Wanliss的書,把宗教活動場所的企業利益的聯盟? 也許Wanliss博士應該反思一下,他是否希望為他的書,以這種方式使用。

(三)2012年賽馬摩爾

懷疑論者的指南中世紀暖期

孫,2012年1月4日

“如何科學聲稱人是全球變暖的原因時,地球的溫度是在中世紀暖期(MWP)溫暖?”

科學懷疑論者是相當善於handwaving參數,有時因為他們不理解科學和科學上有時只是投通過巧妙參數的疑問。 他們最喜歡的是“如何科學聲稱人是全球變暖的原因時,地球的溫度是暖和得多,在中世紀暖期(MWP)在過去一千年?”你不是真的要成為一名科學家要弄清楚有沒有準確的溫度記錄在中世紀時期,世界上許多不明。

懷疑論者指出,如農戶的羔羊,在已知的世界紀錄熱浪描述在中世紀暖期的那些歷史記錄。 持懷疑態度,而忽視了農戶的羔羊被如此關注有關全球變暖的影響,他創立的氣候研究組(CRU)的研究地球的溫度記錄。 科學問題歸結為(1)馬灣公園是否是全球範圍內,(2)多麼溫暖的地球實際上是在中世紀暖期,(3)什麼原因造成的中世紀暖期?

由於沒有溫度計和中世紀暖期期間沒有氣象觀測站的全球網絡,科學家們使用了各種嘗試從冰芯,同位素比值,沉積物,地質記錄,甚至樹木年輪代用資料重建過去一千年的溫度年。 雖然有很大的不確定性和代理記錄,他們需要小心校準,他們也顯示了類似的模式,你可以看到下圖中,它是由10個不同的重建。 黑線是有溫度儀器紀錄。*(請參見本文末尾的參考。)

雖然有廣泛的不確定性,在代理的溫度記錄,合計,他們形成一個整體的模式,它回答的科學問題。 代理記錄顯示:(1)有一個溫暖的時期,從公元1000年至1200年,其次是從公元1550較冷的小冰期期間to1850美國宇航局標識,雖然它不是一個真正的冰河時代。 記錄還顯示,(2)在中世紀暖期的溫度分別為定量比後者的20世紀期間的溫度較低。 發現的中世紀暖期的原因,有必要來看看另一個重建。

雖然研究過去冰河時代的原因,科學家們已經確定的三個主要因素影響地球的溫度,太陽輻射,溫室氣體(主要是水和二氧化碳),並從火山活動中的微粒。 下面是一個重建的三個主要因素是地球的溫度控制。 記錄中有許多有趣的事情,但他們表現出(3)地球可能是在中世紀暖期,因為較高的太陽輻射,溫暖全世界。 它還表明,太陽輻射一直是相對恆定的,而在上個世紀​​的其他因素,主要的溫室氣體,增加了。

雖然這是可能的爭議或爭論的任何個人記錄的意義,它是相當虛偽聲稱,科學家們“沒有數據”,或質疑目前全球變暖的明顯的原因。 要強調的是,下面是從上個世紀的數據,這是基於科學的記錄。 而H20和雲帳戶為約75%的溫室效應,其效果僅略有增加(約4%),而在上個世紀​​的二氧化碳量增加了約39%。

二氧化碳:人類正把每年約30億萬噸的二氧化碳到空氣中。 約有一半溶解在海洋中,他們已經成為在上個世紀​​20%以上的酸性。 其餘大多停留在空氣中, 二氧化碳在空氣中建立

溫度:二氧化碳是使地球變暖的溫室氣體之一, 美國宇航局的圖表顯示,它的增長是如何改變地球的溫度,微粒爆炸Pinaturbo的影響,可以看到在溫度下降,從1991年至1995年。

太陽:目前全球變暖常常被錯誤地歸因於在陽光的強度增加。 太陽黑子活動不顯示以上的噪聲在上述溫度記錄。 太陽輻照度略有上升,直到1960年,從那時起略有下降。

有科學的故事。 在科學的糾紛解決的數據。 儘管懷疑論者可能會提出異議的證據顯示,目前全球變暖是由人為造成的,問題是“證據在哪裡?”

* 溫度重建參考文獻:這個數字的原始版本是由羅伯特·A·羅德準備從公開的數據NOAA和其中的參考文獻。 文章指出:“對於這種比較的目的,至於哪些是無關的,如果有的話,全球平均氣溫的重建是準確地反映了在過去2000年溫度波動。 “用於重建,為了從最古老的最近期公佈,包括:

  • (深藍色的1900至91年):PD 瓊斯,KR Briffa,總磷巴尼特和SFB邰蒂(1998)。 “過去千年高分辨率的古氣候記錄解釋,整合和環流模式控制運行溫度比較”。 全新世8:455-471。 DOI10.1191/095968398667194956
  • (藍色1000年至1980年)::ME 曼,RS布拉德利,和MK休斯(1999)。 “在過去一千年北半球溫度:推論,不確定性和限制”。 “地球物理研究快報”26(6):759-762。
  • (淡藍色的1000年至1965年): 克勞利和洛厄裡(2000年)。 “北半球氣溫重建”。 AMBIO 29:51-54。修改克勞利(2000年)出版 “在過去1000年氣候變化的原因”。 科學289:270-277。 DOI10.1126/science.289.5477.270
  • (最輕的藍1402至1960年), 集成電路,跳頻Schweingruber的TJ奧斯本KR Briffa,哈里斯的PD瓊斯,Shiyatov神光,神光和EA Vaganov(2001)。 從北部的樹木年輪密度網絡的“低頻率溫度的變化”。 地球物理學報。 106:2929年至2941年。
  • (淺綠松石831-1992):J 艾斯波,:ER庫克和跳頻Schweingruber的(2002)。 “重建過去的氣溫變化的低頻信號在長樹輪年表”。 科學295(5563):2250-2253 DOI10.1126/science.1066208
  • (綠色200-1980):ME Mann和PD瓊斯(2003)。 “在過去兩千年全球平均地面氣溫”。 地球物理研究快報30(15):1820。 DOI10.1029/2003GL017814
  • (黃200-1995)::PD 瓊斯和ME曼(2004)。 “過去千年的氣候”。 地球物理42評論:RG2002。 DOI10.1029/2003RG000143
  • (橙色1500至1980年):S 黃(2004)。 “合併信息從不同的資源將在過去和未來氣候變化的新見解”。 地球物理。 RES LETT 31:L13205 DOI10.1029/2004GL019781
  • (紅色1-1979):A 莫葛博士,:DM Sonechkin,K. Holmgren說,新墨西哥州Datsenko和W.Karlén(2005)。 “高度可變北半球溫度低和高清晰度的代理數據重建。 自然443:613-617。 DOI10.1038/nature03265
  • (深紅色一六〇 〇年至1990年): 殲轟Oerlemans(2005年)。 他說:“從169冰川記錄提取氣候信號”。 科學308:675-677。 DOI10.1126/science.1107046

(三)2012年賽馬摩爾

遊戲的同行評議制度,第三部分:敵意收購

星期一,26/03/2012

A組的懷疑論者曾經設法接管在同行評審期刊的編輯和發布敵視主流氣候科學的文章。 與政客和大資金來源的幫助下,在敵對行動持續到今天。

懷疑論者:科學價值持懷疑態度,因為他們使科學強,他們有時會做出寶貴的貢獻,通過開闢新的調查領域。 真懷疑遵循的方法和科學倫理,這就要求他們服從他們的工作,審查他們的同齡人透露利益衝突。 有一些,特別是在氣候科學領域,對金錢和權力,誰違反科學道德原則的懷疑論者。 分開那些真正的懷疑論者,他們將在這裡指定為“懷疑論者”。 他們通常只是科學家所忽視,但有問題時,一個懷疑論者成為雜誌編輯。

雜誌的編輯們看到文章適當的審查和科學合理的,在發布前幾乎完全負責。 一些期刊,如 能源和環境,迎合如莎莉Baliunas,帕特里克·邁克爾,羅斯McKitrick,斯蒂芬·麥金太爾,小羅傑·皮爾克,威利很快,和史蒂夫麥金太爾的懷疑論者;不會受到合法的期刊接受發表文章。 編輯器,宋佳Boehmer克里斯琴森,曾經說過:“我編輯雜誌曾試圖保持這種辯論[氣候懷疑論]活著”。 文章發表在能源和環境是不認真對待,但氣候科學懷疑論者敵對一次管理一家著名雜誌的收購。 一個由約翰Mashey分析表明懷疑論者發布14個氣候研究的文章之前,他們被捉住了遊戲的同行審查制度。

收購:收購開始於1997年,當克里斯·弗雷塔斯成為信譽雜誌的編輯, 氣候研究,有10“華爾街日報”編輯,並各自獨立工 ​​作,所以這是一個編輯器,通過同行評審過程牧羊人論文看到他們出版了。 第一篇論文,從一個懷疑論者,編輯·弗雷塔斯是由帕特里克·邁克爾。 紙張似乎同意IPCC報告的科學發現,但它投在最終結論疑問:“這一發現,而不是進一步增加了支持新興假說 ,地球的氣候不一定在有害的方式的變化”。 在未來六年中,克里斯·弗雷塔斯編輯和出版了十四篇系列發展邁克爾博士的“新興假說”感興趣的懷疑論者。 一些其他編輯詢問他編輯的文件的質量·弗雷塔斯博士從科學家的文章引起這麼多的投訴。 他回答說,他們對“迫害”。

恢復秩序的敵意收購,被發現後,過不久薩莉Baliunas和威利的書面紙塵。 綜述在過去1000年氣候科學文獻,並得出結論,在20世紀的全球變暖是不尋常和自然力量,而不是人的活動的原因。 他們的證據的一個重要的一塊是中世紀暖期,他們聲稱這是比後者的20世紀的全球溫暖。 但是,顯然是錯誤的文件。 有沒有準確的溫度記錄在中世紀時代,美洲尚未被發現,南半球大部分是未知的。 多個數據源的代理記錄表明,中世紀暖期,在地球的溫度記錄只是一個小駝背。 出版後不久,美國地球物理聯盟(AGU)發出新聞稿 ,很快說,並Baliunas嚴重誤解了他們的研究的科學家,他們的工作是在用於Baliunas不久的文件,從13。 13然後,科學家合著的一份文件,完全解釋為什麼“Baliunas不久紙是錯誤的。

這一切都引起了相當大氣候研究引起抗議浪潮。 五名成員組成的編委會最終辭職抗議和新聘請的總編輯,漢斯·馮·斯托奇表示紙張有嚴重的錯誤,不應該已出版。 湯姆·威格利,誰經常檢討氣候研究的論文,寫,“我已經有文件,我審閱並一片反對之聲,德·弗雷塔斯的主編下,出現以後的日記,沒有我看到作者的任何響應。”所有這一切其次是從出版商,一個不尋常的公開聲明,承認在該雜誌的編輯過程中的缺陷。 壓力下,克里斯·弗雷塔斯辭職後不久,從懷疑論者的文件不再出現在氣候研究。

擴展敵對行動:這應該已經結束了這個問題,除了一些政客發現的Baliunas結論,不久的文件,有利於對化石燃料的行業,他們效忠。 被提上監管機構施加政治壓力,以接受紙張的結果,儘管有其明顯的缺陷和扭曲。 環保署不願到包括在氣候變化科學評估的文件,所以參議員詹姆斯·英赫夫( - 確定)舉行的參議院環境和公共工程委員會審議的文件(EPW)會議。

EPW聽證會上 ,邁克爾·曼為代表的科學觀點,從多個來源,中世紀暖期是不統一全球,導致地球的溫度記錄在小駝背只提出證據。 不久,博士站在後面,他的工作,直接到他的資金來源問題,作證說,他沒有收到任何可能偏向他的客觀性的資金。 然而,文件列出了美國石油學會的主要資金來源。 文件收到後FOIA要求,在史密森學會透露,自2001年以來,博士很快已收到來自石油和煤炭的利益超過100萬元的資助。

參議員英赫夫的變故感到不滿,並試圖讓他開槍 - 邁克爾·曼是。 參議員英赫夫的堅持,到曼恩博士的研究,奎克大學,賓夕法尼亞大學進行了兩項調查,沒有發現任何不當行為。 2010年的科學文章回顧調查,宣布“ 邁克爾·曼被清除,再次。”與執政黨不滿,參議員英赫夫試圖得到律政司控告邁克爾·曼欺詐。 它沒有得到敵對遠不止於此。 可悲的是,在歷史上第一次,科學家們正在收集法律辯護基金,以捍衛科學家對政治攻擊。 更糟糕的是,我們的環境和公共工程委員會的資深成員的科學意見的基礎上,不會通過大一英文的文件。

(三)2012年賽馬摩爾

書評:由參議員詹姆斯·英赫夫最大的騙局

星期二,20/03/2012
美國參議員吉姆·英赫夫的長期承諾書, 最大的騙局:全球變暖陰謀威脅到你的未來如何 ,終於完成了。 它發表WND圖書,為已故的偉大美國等其他大陰謀的書籍已出版:與墨西哥和加拿大即將合併的 這本書一定會是一個打擊,一些遊說者,政治家和企業領袖。 它也可能是科學家之間的受歡迎,因為它揭示了關於參議員英赫夫一些有趣的事情,並為科學家提供了一個機會,以檢查他的觀點和論據。

曾擔任參議員英赫夫塔爾薩市市長,是來自俄克拉何馬州的資深參議員。 他一直大力倡導了許多他的選民,他一直強烈批評一些國會程序缺乏公開性。 他是在得到聯邦政府的超級資金清理在俄克拉何馬州東北部的投手鉛礦。 東北俄克拉何馬州的一個大面積的影響,並已花費數百萬美元,以盡量減輕對環境的破壞。 當時沒有人知道,鉛是有毒的,投手是一個完美的例子如何你不知道什麼可以傷害你的,是昂貴的。

參議員英赫夫常說:“全球變暖是一個騙局”,但證明這可能是困難的。 每一個在世界上主要的科研機構已經通過了類似的美國化學學會的語句:“ 認真和全面的科學評估,已經清楚地表明,地球的氣候系統是不斷變化的響應日益增長的溫室氣體排放的大氣負擔和吸收氣溶膠粒子迅速。 有懷疑的餘地很小,觀測到的氣候變化趨勢是由於人類活動。 嚴重的威脅,迫切需要採取行動,以減輕氣候變化的風險 。“2010年美國斯坦福大學的調查發現97-98%的氣候研究人員最活躍的氣候科學出版1372氣候科學家都同意,全球變暖正在發生人類活動的主要因素。 最大的騙局試圖說服我們,否則引述媒體來源,政治家,遊說,自稱是懷疑論者的科學家的2-3%,雖然有些懷疑收到大量的獎勵。 合法的科學根據的證據和理由,但在這本書中提出的許多想法都沒有。

政治:參議員 英赫夫說:“ 我不是一個科學家。 我不懂政治。“他說,他進入政治,因為塔爾薩市的工程師不會批准他的請求,將他的建築火災逃生。 英赫夫先生告訴他,他打算競選市長和解僱他時,他贏得了。 他做到了。 這是可能的工程師後,城市的民選官員通過建築代碼,並有可能已經離開走火地方,如它是很容易在發生火災時課稅,一個很好的理由。 然而,這一事件解釋參議員英赫夫的態度走向法規,監管機構,科學家的研究顯示需要的法規。 這也解釋了參議員接近規定。 他認為業務的障礙,但他沒有看到,大多數法規,以保護公眾。 他最喜歡的目標之一是環保局,這是由壓力。 尼克松以保護環境。 參議員英赫夫選擇參議院環境和公共工程(EPW)委員會的工作,這樣他就可以保護他認為不必要的環保法規的企業。

騙局:參議員 英赫夫顯然 ​​是相信“ 全球變暖是一個騙局 ”在最近的國會歷史更糟的騙局之一。 它開始時威利博士很快設法得到了一份文件,在氣候評價與同情他的看法的一個編輯的幫助下通過同行評審過程。 本文綜述了對氣候科學的文獻,並得出結論,在20世紀的全球變暖是不尋常和自然的力量,而不是人的活動,是事業。 他的證據的一個重要部分是中世紀暖期,他聲稱比後者20世紀的溫暖。 但有一些錯誤的紙張。 有沒有準確的溫度記錄在中世紀時代,美洲尚未被發現,南半球大部分是未知的。 博士不久的文件相抵觸的證據從數以百計的其他同行評審的論文。 截至3名成員辭職抗議和新聘請的總編輯,說明紙張有嚴重錯誤,不應該已公佈的編委會在氣候評價,這引起相當轟動。 環保局不願意包括在氣候變化科學評估的文件,所以參議員英赫夫預定的的EPW委員會會議,以審議的文件。

會議前不久,美國地球物理聯盟(AGU)發布了其工作不久的博士論​​文的科學家13日的新聞稿中,說紙歪曲他們的研究。 在聽證會上,邁克爾·曼為代表的科學觀點,提出從中世紀暖期是不是全世界只有在溫度記錄在小駝峰導致多個來源的證據。 很快就站在後面,他的工作,並作證說,他沒有收到任何可能偏向他的客觀性資金。 然而,作為主要來源的資金和從史密森學會自收到回應FOIA要求的文件,文件列出了美國石油學會透露,博士自2001年以來,很快已收到來自石油和煤炭的利益超過100萬元的資助。 參議員英赫夫的變故感到不滿,並試圖讓他開槍 - 邁克爾·曼是。 參議員英赫夫的堅持,貴格會大學,賓夕法尼亞大學,已進行2到曼恩博士的研究調查,沒有發現任何不當行為。 2010年的科學文章回顧調查,宣布“ 邁克爾·曼被清除,再次。”與執政黨不滿,參議員英赫夫試圖得到律政司控告邁克爾·曼欺詐。 可悲的是,在歷史上第一次,科學家們正在收集法律辯護基金,以捍衛科學家對政治攻擊。 更糟糕的是,我們的環境和公共工程委員會的資深成員的科學觀點顯然是基於一份文件,將無法通過大一英文。

代言:最大的騙局被馬幣卡特博士,來自澳大利亞的古生物學家,誰是參議員英赫夫的明星證人同意2006年的參議院聽證會上,氣候變化和媒體。 媒體沒有可靠的成員作證,人們可能會問,為什麼參議員英赫夫將在澳大利亞媒體的偏見。 卡特博士可能是因為他可以算的上作證,從歷史上看,在全球氣溫上升之前一直不斷上升的二氧化碳濃度,因此,一些自然的原因,必須釋放的二氧化碳是導致溫度上升。 他是正確的二氧化碳增加地球的溫度的作用,但他而忽略二氧化碳濃度上升,因為燃燒化石燃料釋放30億噸二氧化碳,每年的可能性。

聽證會後,卡特博士是由氣候學家的挑戰,顯示他聲稱的自然變異產生的研究,但姍姍來遲生產的紙,他很快就被駁斥重大錯誤時,被發現在他的推理。 雖然在聽證會上作證的四個科學家懷疑,所有四個同意在上個世紀​​,地球升溫約1℃。 參議員英赫夫自己的聽證會上曾明確駁斥他的說法:“ 全球變暖是一個騙局 。”這是很少關注的參議員英赫夫,作為聽證會的主要目的是為了恐嚇記者-如果需要。

科學 :在書中幾乎沒有科學,雖然書中有很多是專門哈特蘭德研究所,媒體人士,和其他政界人士引述他的朋友,詆毀科學和科學家。 他甚至還設置了戈爾作為一個科學家稻草人。 在這本書的介紹,他的戈爾赤裸而無味的圖片顯示,相當大的空間是專門醜化他。 這是一個恥辱,作為一個受尊敬的參議員,副總統戈爾曾擔任,作為總統候選人在幾百票當選。 戈爾獲得了諾貝爾和平獎他的環保工作和他的電影“難以忽視的真相”獲得了奧斯卡獎。 影片在法庭上也有它的天,贏得了。 有趣的是,同卡特博士,誰批准書,是在為原告證人Dimmock至 ​​五國務卿教育 ,西裝,試圖阻止一個難以忽視的真相“在英國的教育用途。 法院顯然不同意卡特博士和裁定,雖然影片有一些錯誤,大幅建立在科學研究和事實可以顯示。 參議員英赫夫聲稱自己是自由市場資本主義,但他顯然沒有意識到,這些利潤大部分一直致力於推動保守的原因,如保護,似乎採取巨大的樹蔭,戈爾從他在綠色能源的投資獲利,地球。

雖然他可能是一個熟練的政治家,在黨派意義上說,參議員英赫夫是正確時,他說:“我不是一個科學家。”他不明白如何從許多領域的科學知識結合在一起的自然形成一致的看法。 For instance, the book tells that after a large snowfall in Washington DC, his grandchildren built an igloo and put up a sign: “ Al Gore's New Home ”. Sen. Inhofe used the picture to denounce global warming alarmism, though he should know that a single weather event proves nothing. And, if he were a scientist, he might understand how the warming oceans increase the probability of a record snowfall in Washington DC , making the igloo possible – and how carbon dioxide has made more probable the record heat waves in Texas and Oklahoma, making droughts and wildfires possible.

Sen. Inhofe shows he does not understand how science works when he brings up the “Coming Ice Age” story to discredit the scientific evidence. The argument goes, “ How can you trust science, when in the 1970s the scientists were predicting the coming of a new Ice Age, but now scientists claim that the Earth is warming ?” In the 70's, scientists found that increased industrialization was causing not only an increase in particulates, which would cause global cooling, but also an increase in CO2, which would increase global warming. There was no consensus among scientists about which effect would predominate. A count of scientific papers in that decade showed that only 7 journal articles predicted that the global average temperature would continue to cool, while 44 papers indicated that the average temperature would rise. The research on global cooling was valuable as it showed a nuclear war was unwinnable as particulates from a nuclear exchange might create a nuclear winter, ending life on Earth as we know it.

Scientific controversies are usually settled by the evidence, but this one was settled by the intervention of man. Particulates are visible and have serious health consequences. By 1980, regulations were in place to limit particulate emissions and, as that happened, the temperature of the Earth began increasing again. The fossil fuel companies became alarmed, as it was becoming apparent that we should also limit carbon emissions to keep the Earth's temperature at equilibrium, so they began a propaganda campaign to convince us that carbon dioxide was harmless. If you believe that, remember the lesson of Pitcher, Oklahoma. What you don't know can hurt you and be very costly.

Cap and Trade: Sen. Inhofe claims that cap and trade is the “crown jewel” of a global conspiracy of scientists, Hollywood stars, and media personalities who want to take away your freedom and create a world government. However, cap and trade was devised by free-market conservatives for President Reagan, who used it successfully to stop the acid rain drifting into Canada from our Northeastern power plants. It was part the Clean Air Act signed into law by President Bush I and many prominent Republicans , including John McCain, have supported it. Cap and trade is considered to be the market solution to reducing carbon emissions. It is described by the EPA as “ an environmental policy tool that delivers results with a mandatory cap on emissions while providing sources flexibility in how they comply. Successful cap and trade programs reward innovation, efficiency, and early action and provide strict environmental accountability without inhibiting economic growth.” Does that sound like it “Threatens Your Future ” , as the subtitle of the book claims? And, it cannot be making Al Gore rich – or be the cause of rising energy prices – as it has not yet been enacted for carbon emissions.

Costs: Sen. Inhofe main objection to environmental regulations is their tremendous cost; but an accurate analysis of costs and benefits are not in the book. He just claims that it would cost each US household $3,100 a year, a cost that has great sticker shock, but is totally inaccurate. Dr. John Reilly, the MIT economist whose work was used to arrive at that number, has publicly criticized a Republican lobbyist for distorting his work to arrive at that inflated value. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the cost of the cap-and-trade program by 2020 would average about $175 annually per household, and that associated savings would reduce the federal deficit by about $19 billion over the next decade. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences details other high economic costs of inadequate environmental legislation, such as reduced streamflow, rainfall, and crop yields. Yet Congress has refused to act on the matter.

Also, Sen. Inhofe seems to have left some important items out of his balance sheet, such as the true cost of using fossil fuels. The true cost of a resource should include repairing damage caused by its use and disposing of the waste. We are in effect subsidizing the fossil fuel industry by allowing them to freely discharge their wastes into the environment. Some of the “true costs” of fossil fuel use, such as health and environmental costs can be estimated. Nicholas Stern, former chief economist of the World Bank and one of the world's top economists, has used the results from formal economic models to examine the potential cost of failure to limit our carbon emissions. He estimates that the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the cost of mitigation and damages could rise to 20% of GDP or more in the future – and we would run the additional risk of an environmental catastrophe.

Taking 5% of the US GDP for 2010, would give an environmental cost of $727 billion. As to health costs, the American Lung Association estimates that the EPA's proposed guidelines for particulates could prevent 38,000 heart attacks and premature deaths, 1.5 million cases of acute bronchitis and aggravated asthma, and 2.7 million days of missed work or school. They estimate the economic benefits of reduced exposure to particulates alone could reach as much as $281 billion annually. Those two add up to about $1.08 trillion. The calculations do not include all the environmental and health costs, but they do show about how much we are subsidizing the fossil fuel industries by ignoring the damage to people's health and the environment.

Sen. Inhofe, in his Rachel Maddow interview, stated that the cost of cap and trade would be $30-$40 billion annually. That is about 1/30 of what the environmental and health costs might eventually be. Then, it is rather hard to put a value on those premature deaths or the added risk of environmental catastrophes. The number of billion-dollar weather disasters has increased fivefold over the last 30 years, and insurance giants such as Suisse Re now consider man-made global warming real, and a risk factor in setting insurance rates. Increased insurance rates will be an additional out of pocket cost, which could easily offset the $175 the CBO estimated that cap and trade would cost.

Scientists: To get around the strong consensus of scientists, the book claims there is a global conspiracy of liberal scientists bent on creating a world government, that climate science is a religion, that climate scientists are in it for the money, and that Climategate proves climate scientists are dishonest. None of those claims are supported by verifiable evidence. Most scientists are good citizens, conservative in their statements and actions. Most are religious, with stewardship and concern for their fellow man being part of their religion. The Presbyterian church, where Senator Inhofe claims membership, stated in 1989 and reaffirmed in 2008, its “serious concern that the global atmospheric warming trend (the greenhouse effect) represents one of the most serious global environmental challenges to the health, security, and stability of human life and natural ecosystems.”

  The book calls climate scientists “alarmists” in a derogatory sense, but many are becoming alarmed. Research shows that the Earth's climate is changing because of our emissions of CO2, yet Congress has not acted to solve the problem. Scientists were criticized for considering the problem catastrophic, but they realize our carbon emissions will have an affect for 100 years or more into the future and inaction will threaten our food and water supply,increase the risk of severe weather events, and a possibly lead to an environmental catastrophe. Remember what happened at Pitcher, Oklahoma because lead mining was considered harmless.

Sen. Inhofe often calls those who disagree with him “liberals”, but the meaning of liberal and conservative seem to be flexible. During the American Revolution, it was the liberals who wanted to create a democracy and conservatives who thought that King George had a divine right to rule. Sen. Inhofe uses “liberals” to describe environmentalists and others who want to preserve the earth – and uses “conservatives” for those who want to conserve power and profits.

He describes Rachel Maddow as one of his favorite liberals, but that may change. In his book he said “ Rachel's segment was one of the last major efforts to go after me just days before I landed in Copenhagen and declared vindication .” However in his recent interview on Rachel's show, she showed the clip. Nowhere in the clip does it mention Copenhagen or climate change. Rather than apologize, he said he couldn't remember everything he said in the 350 pages of fine print in the book, raising questions about how much of the book he actually wrote. Apparently liberal can also mean “pesky”.

石油巨頭:參議員 英赫夫告訴在俄克拉何馬州油田昔日的一些好故事,但當時塔爾薩世界石油資本和我們國內的石油生產不同品種從今天的跨國石油公司。 他們很少有忠誠於美國,並為我們的公民或環境很少關注。 他們創造了一些人為的最大的環境災難和抵制相當補償他們的受害者。 在深水地平線石油洩漏的憤怒後,BP公司首席執行官評論:“ 我希望我的生活 ”,但他無法歸還11失去生命,因為他的決定。 雖然他答應賠償漏油損壞美國人的,BP任命了一名律師,分散的資金,“要么接受,要么離開它”提供的許多受害者。 埃克森美孚埃克森公司瓦爾迪茲石油洩漏後,去了所有的方式向最高法院以避免支付$ 5億美元的賠償所欠的本土阿拉斯加。 科赫油被指控欺騙了5億美元的石油特許權使用費的印第安人和政府俄克拉何馬州。 他們庭外解決的情況下為50億美元,10日,不承認不法行為。 誰說犯罪劃不來?

去年,世界最大的石油公司獲得40億美元的減稅補貼。 然而,他們的報告利潤171億美元,與部分燃油價格的急劇上升引起的經濟損失,而大多數美國企業和公民的掙扎。 參議員英赫夫說,他的目標是“ 能源自給自足 ”的美國,但去年領先的美國出口的燃料,這麼大的石油公司出售美國石油國外,創造了在美國的短缺,哄抬價格。 增加他們的利潤是他們的主要目標,即使碳排放量可能會造成一種人為的環境災難多比漏油更大。 為了捍衛自己的利潤,這些公司目前參議員英赫夫守在他的書中,科學拒絕機的主要貢獻者。

哈特蘭德基金會:參議員 英赫夫能夠拿自己的樂趣時,他說:“大自然的反擊”,指的是一種嚴重的疾病,他聯繫了一個湖泊污染與有毒藍綠藻,其增長是由水體污染和熱浪和俄克拉何馬州的刺激,而游泳。 這種疾病導致他錯過哈特蘭德研究所的會議,在那裡他是主講。 他哈特蘭德研究所的關係困擾。 哈特蘭德研究所,一次旨在證明宣傳的主要來源有吸煙,癌症和肺病之間沒有聯繫,現在已經變成了爭論的碳排放和全球變暖之間的聯繫生產宣傳其相當的經驗和資源。 石油巨​​頭提供哈特蘭德研究所的經費,以及其他類似的“保守”的智囊團,美元的通道百萬否定科學。 哈特蘭德研究所是一家為石油巨頭的遊說者,忠誠的政治家和有償懷疑論者聚集的地方。 其中許多是參議員英赫夫的書的信息來源。 可能是信息的準確度如何?

懷疑論者 :科學價值的懷疑,因為他們強大的科學領域,需要更多的調查指出,他們有時會作出寶貴的貢獻,科學。 當理查德·穆勒質疑美國宇航局的溫度記錄,他評價氣象站數據的所有6億件,和溫度記錄是準確的結論來。 當奧唐奈Steig顯示南極洲是氣候變暖的工作表示懷疑,他重新分析數據,發現確實是地球上最冷的地方,南極洲,逐漸回暖。

Skeptics are expected to follow the methodologies and the ethics of science, to subject their work to review by their peers, and to divulge conflicts of interest. Many of those Sen. Inhofe praises as “climate skeptics” do not meet those criteria. They profit from being skeptical and, when research shows them wrong, they continue to repeat their skeptical arguments anyway. An example is Anthony Watts, who started the Surface Station Project to examine the data from weather stations, which he claimed had errors. The AGU took his skepticism seriously and did a thorough study on the weather stations, finding the data was reliable. They had offered Watts a chance to participate in the research, but he missed his chance to be a scientist when he refused. And though the question has been answered, Mr. Watts is still repeating the same criticisms – and collecting substantial donations to continue his Surface Station Project. There are many skeptics like Mr. Watts, who receives generous grants from think tanks, not for fundamental research, but to come up with ideas to cast doubt on the IPCC, climate research, and the work of legitimate scientists. Many of the paid skeptics appear in Sen. Inhofe's book as his sources for information, quotes, and references.

Vindication: In this chapter of the book, Sen. Inhofe claims vindication, but it is hard to imagine sufficient vindication for displaying a picture of Al Gore naked. Sen. Inhofe does claim he is vindicated by the Climategate e-mails. Hackers broke into the computers of England's Hadley Climatic Research Unit (CRU), and stole 10 years of e-mails exchanged between the scientists. Quotes from the stolen e-mails were taken out of context, distorted, and released to media sources with claims the CRU scientists engaged in illegal and unethical acts. As of today, eight independent formal investigations have been completed and none have found any scientific misconduct by the scientists involved. The incident was dubbed “Climategate” , but it was in no way like Watergate. In Wategate, the thieves were caught and punished and those who masterminded the plot were publicly disgraced. In Climategate, the thieves have been hailed by some skeptics as heroes – and the victims of the theft have been vilified. It seems strange that Scotland Yard is searching for the hackers, while Sen. Inhofe is gleefully helping spread the misinformation. So, rather than being like Watergate, the e-mail scandal was actually more like Stargate, fictional fantasy. The accusations of wrongdoing by some of the skeptical scientists, made before the matter could be investigated, were particularly egregious as scientist's ethical codes say that:” Public comments on scientific matters should be made with care and precision, without unsubstantiated, exaggerated, or premature statements.”

勝出:參議員 英赫夫聲稱他贏了,但他不能被科學辯論說。 All the world's major scientific organizations think he is losing, as do 97 – 98% of the climate scientists, and 83% of American voters. A 2011 Stanford poll found that 83% of Americans say that global warming is happening with 88% of Democrats and 54% of Republicans saying it is the result of human action. Attacking scientists may prove to be contrary to the Republican party's best interest. While polls find scientist's trustworthiness is highly rated , with 84% having a favorable view of scientists, Congress' approval has now dropped to around 9%. This may be indicative of the public's dissatisfaction with the partisanship and gridlock in Congress, occurring for reasons well on display in this book.

Although some members of Congress and some of the public may listen to Sen. Inhofe, nature doesn't. No matter how much he claims “hoax”, research shows the climate is changing in response to man's activities. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing, the temperature of the Earth is rising, the oceans are becoming more acidic, glaciers and polar ice caps are melting, sea levels are rising, the probability of severe weather events is increasing, and weather-related natural disasters are becoming more frequent and more costly. It's time we examine more closely who is actually winning by ignoring science.

(三)2012年賽馬摩爾

遊戲的同行評議系統:第2部分。 鑽空子

Fri ,03/02/2012

There is evidence that the authors of a recent paper may have gamed the peer review system to publish a biased climate science paper.

The Review Process: When a paper is submitted to a journal for publication, the editor removes the name of the author and sends the manuscript to several experts in the area, usually three, for review. The editor keeps the names of the reviewers confidential. If an error is found, the reviewer's comments are returned to the author with suggestions for corrections. It is a good system for ensuring the quality of research publications, but even then papers are sometimes published that contains errors. The reviewers may miss an error, a biased editor may publish the paper in spite of flaws, or authors may exploit loopholes in a journal's rules to get a paper published. Some journals allow the author to suggest names of reviewers and the editor often picks reviewers from the list. Most scientists submit names of reliable reviewers as it is an embarrassment to have errors found in their paper after publication. However, even if the papers are properly reviewed, the practice can bring accusations of “pal” review. Since reviewer's names are kept confidential by the editor, it is difficult to know for sure whether that may have happened. However, there is evidence that the authors of a recent paper may have gamed the system by suggesting a set of reviewers that shared their bias. See what you think.

The paper: Last July 25th, Roy Spencer and Danny Braswell authored a paper in the rather specialized technical journal, Remote Sensing, titled “ On the Misdiagnosis Of Surface Temperature Feedbacks From Variations In Earth's Radiant Energy Balance “. The paper claimed “The sensitivity of the climate system to an imposed radiative imbalance remains the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future anthropogenic climate change. Here we present further evidence that this uncertainty from an observational perspective is largely due to the masking of the radiative feedback signal by internal radiative forcing, probably due to natural cloud variations.” It seems that only an expert in climatology would know what that means or what its implications were, but in three days a sensationalized version of the paper appeared on internet sites, in major business magazines, and in news articles in major newspapers. Millions of people likely read about the paper.

The Publicity: The renewed public interest in science should have made climate scientists pleased; however, they were not. Beneath the technical language is a claim that the climate sensitivity to CO2 has been misinterpreted by climate scientists because of natural cloud variations. Were it true, it would mean that natural forces, not man, were responsible for much of the observed global warming. That idea had been examined before and found to be inconsistent with the evidence, but the idea is one that some climate skeptics have been promoting. And, they are part of a well-funded pipeline that carries misinformation about climate science to major news outlets before all the facts can be known.

Forbes: One main branch of the misinformation pipeline runs through the Heartland Institute, where James Taylor is listed as a senior fellow. James Taylor once wrote articles for the tobacco industry suggesting that secondhand smoke was not harmful, and he has now turned his talents to denying the ties between rising CO2 levels and global warming. Inexplicably, James Taylor has been hired by Forbes magazine to write on energy and environmental topics. James Taylor picked up on Spencer's paper and wrote an article for Forbes titled, New NASA Data Blows Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism. Not only was the title inaccurate and misleading, but the article was clearly an opinion article, miscategorized as news. The editors of Forbes might not have known that Spencer's “NASA Data” was the same data that climate scientists use to reach a very different conclusion, but perhaps they should have noticed that no reasonable news story would describe climate scientists as “alarmists” 15 times. The business community considers legislation that would reduce our carbon emissions to be anti-business, and business newspapers such as Investors Business Daily, the Wall Street Journal, and Forbes often are biased toward the skeptic's position. The bias shows up in story selection, opinions miscategorized as news, a disproportionate number of skeptics articles on opinion pages, and in sensationalized headlines. From Forbes, the article was picked up as a news story by other business magazines, Yahoo! News, MSNBC, and skeptic's blog sites, which had a field day with the article. It is sad that millions will have read the distorted article, but few will ever read the climate scientist's rebuttal. The article will soon sink into obscurity, but it will have accomplished it's purpose, which was to spread doubt about climate change.

Reproducibility: Publication in a peer-reviewed journal is not the only requirement for a paper to become accepted as part of the science literature. The research must stand up to the scrutiny of other experts in the field and it must be reproducible by other scientists with comparable knowledge and skill. Spencer's paper reached the news media before climate scientists had a chance to respond, but they soon found a number of obvious errors in the paper. Trenberth and Fasullo summed it up :”The model has no realistic ocean, no El Niño, and no hydrological cycle, and it was tuned to give the result it gave. The bottom line is that there is NO merit whatsoever in this paper.” Given time, AE Dessler analyzed Spencer's paper in detail and published a rebuttal . The abstract in Geophysical Review Letters reports the key points of his paper:

  • Clouds are not causing climate change;
  • Observations are not in disagreement with models on this point;
  • Previous work on this is flawed; ( referring specifically to Spencer's paper in Remote Sensing).

Clearly, Spencer's paper had serious methodological flaws and was not reproducible. How did the paper get through Remote Sensing’s peer review process? The answer would likely not have been found, except for the publicity.

The Catastrophe: The editor of Remote Sensing , who had been trying to build the reputation of the Journal, considered the publicity a catastrophe. The instructions in Remote Sensing asks authors to suggest five reviewers, and it is possible that Spencer could choose five skeptics. The editor would not have to pick from those, but apparently in this case he did. In the next issue of Remote Sensing , the editor, Dr. Wolfgang Wagner, resigned and issued a public apology for this article saying, “With this step I would also like to personally protest against how the authors and like-minded climate skeptics have much exaggerated the paper's conclusions in public statements.” “The problem is that comparable studies published by other authors have already been refuted in open discussions and to some extent also in the literature, a fact which was ignored by Spencer and Braswell in their paper and, unfortunately, not picked up by the reviewers . “ And he concluded, “But, as the case presents itself now, the editorial team unintentionally selected three reviewers who probably share some climate sceptic notions of the authors.”

© 2012 JC Moore

遊戲的同行評議系統:第1部分。 偏頗編輯

Sun ,22/01/2012

If I have seen further it is only by standing on the shoulders of giants. … Sir Isaac Newton

  Peer review: Every scientist's work depends upon the evidence and reasoning of all the scientists who preceeded him. To ensure that previous work is reliable, scientific journals have established a peer review process to ensure that published papers are free of errors in reasoning and methodology. Normally,when a paper is submitted for publication, the editor of the journal removes the name of the author and sends the manuscript to a number of experts in the area for review. The editor keeps the names of the reviewers confidential. In case an error is found or corrections suggested, the reviews are returned to the author with suggestions for improvement. When the reviewer's concerns are addressed to the editor's satisfaction, the article is published. It is a good system for ensuring the quality of research publications, but in a few cases ways have been found to game the system.

Biased Editors: The editors of journals published by major science organizations are chosen for their expertise in the area and for their fairness. However, any organization may publish a journal and claim their articles are peer-reviewed. For example, a recent op Ed article in the Tulsa World claimed “ Climate predictions must be science-backed “. That's certainly true, but the author claimed his opinion was backed by a “a peer-reviewed article based on NOAA data which proves that CO2 may not be the cause of global warming.” However, no peer reviewed article reaching that conclusion could be found. When I contacted the author for his source, he referred me to an article by Ferenc Miskolczi published in Energy and Environment. Though Miskolczi's article is based on NOAA's data, it finds that adding CO2 to the atmosphere does not change its spectroscopic properties – a conclusion violating the laws of physics. Miskolczi's article was criticized by van Dorland and Forster, who wrote : “Miskolczi (2010) theorizes that atmospheric CO2 increases cannot be a cause of global warming. We show his theory to be incorrect both in its application of radiation theory and from direct atmospheric observations.” How did such a paper get published?

The editor of a journal is almost completely responsible for seeing that articles are properly reviewed and for deciding if they should be published. Sourcewatch says that Energy and Environment is a peer-reviewed social science journal published by Multi-Science and the editor is Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, who is described as a reader in geography. Many climate change skeptics such as Sallie Baliunas, Patrick Michaels, Ross McKitrick, Stephen McIntyre, Roger Pielke Jr., Willie Soon, and Steve McIntyre publish articles there that would not be accepted in major journals. Sourcewatch says the editor admits in an article published online that “the journal I edit has tried to keep this debate [climate scepticism] alive”. She also states “I'm following my political agenda — a bit, anyway … But isn't that the right of the editor?”

Not really, if you want to claim to be a peer reviewed science journal.