Doubling Time: Interest and Population Growth.
It is easy to calculate the approximate doubling time for compound interest, credit card debt, or population growth. A simple rule of thumb to get doubling time is to divide the growth rate into 70. For example, an investment at 7% compound interest would double in 70/7 = 10 years. After 10 years, a $100 investment would double to $200, in another 10 years it would double again to $400, and in 10 more years to $800. Not bad. This will also work for credit card debt. If your interest rate is 20% and you only make the minimum payment, your debt will double after 70/20 = 3½ years. You might think again about buying an expensive item on your credit card if you realize that a $1000 purchase, unless paid off, will cost you $2000 after 3 ½ years and $4000 after 7 seven years. Everyone with a credit card should know this simple rule of thumb.
The rule also works for population growth. The world now has about 6 ½ billion people and the rate of growth is about 2%. That means that the Earth’s population will double in about 70/2 = 35 years to 13 billion people. It will then double again in 35 more years to 26 billion people. If you think the roads are crowded now, just wait until 2080. Unlimited growth is considered good for business as the number of consumers just keeps going up. However, we should realize that the current growth rate is unsustainable, as at some point we will begin to run out of resources. Economists say the law of supply and demand insures we will never actually run out of resources. As the supply decreases, the resources will just become increasingly expensive. Nevertheless, those who have little money will soon run out of resources. Then what, wars over resources? Also, our contribution to air and water pollution increases with our population growth. Studies of populations in nature show that when a population exhausts its resources or strangles in its pollution, the population doesn’t just reach equilibrium and stop. There is a massive die off.
In the past, population growth was considered a good thing. More people meant more workers, more soldiers, and more offspring to carry on our values and our genetics. Times have changed, but the old thinking remains. Some countries that have reduced their population’s growth have been criticized as being “weak”. Other countries have claimed efforts to help them with population control are an attempt at “genocide”. Many religions have prohibitions against certain birth control practices. And, many businesses see an increasing number of consumers as more profit. Nevertheless, the path we are on is unsustainable and we must control our population growth. How to do that is the problem.
Certainly, it must be done through education. We firmly believe in our right to choose how many children we have and our right to act in ways consistent with our religious beliefs. Perhaps if people realized that we are on an unsustainable path, they would make personal decisions to help ensure the survival of their descendants. Perhaps people would not bring more children into the world than they can feed and care for if they had the knowledge and methods to avoid doing so. There is a method of birth control acceptable to most every religious belief and the world’s religious organizations must help to educate people in those practices and the necessity of using them wisely. Finally, those who profit from increasing population growth should realize that developing a sustainable economy is in their best interest. What is the point of amassing wealth for your descendants if they cannot live comfortably on the Earth?
Tags: birth-control, compound-interest, doubling-time, economics, population-growth, religion, supply-and-demand, sustainable-population
Posted on February 15th, 2010 at 8:52 pm
[…] Doubling Time: Thinking about Population Growth. | J.C. Moore Online […]
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[…] Doubling Time: Interest and Population Growth. | J.C. Moore Online […]
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Posted on October 27th, 2010 at 7:37 am
The template is a standard WordPress one called The Last Fall. My son modified it to fit the environmental theme.
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Nice graphics, what is the name of template ?
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The theme is The Last Fall which is a WordPress temlate. My son modified it to fit the theme of my site.
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Thanks. My son started with a standard wordpress theme, The Last Fall, and then set it up and added the picture. I wasn’t sure about the white on black letters, but it seems to be readable. It’s not too hard to customize it, except you have to be be familiar with the menus and know a little programming.
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Posted on November 13th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
I think it might be on your end as several have problems using the Google browser. Please check back as I post a new article every week or two
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I’m having a weird issue I can’t seem to be able to subscribe your feed, I’m using google reader fyi.
Posted on November 13th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
I think it might be on your end as several have reported problems using the Google browser. Please check back as I post a new article every week or two.
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I think it might be on your end but several have reported problems using the Google browser. Please check back as I post a new article every week or two.
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When I click on your RSS feed it gives me a ton of weird text, is the issue on my reader?
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There does seem to be a problem with Google browsers. Please try another browser or check back later. I try to post a new article every week or so. just
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I used to moderate all the comments but it got to be too big a job. I now use Askimet along with Conditional Captcha to cut down on the spam. It will sometimes discard a good comment or something I’d like to read, but it became necessary.
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Posted on May 2nd, 2011 at 3:59 pm
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