J.C. Moore Online

Current Events from a Science Perspective

Many people believe that man’s activities are so inconsequential that they could not possibly induce earthquakes. However, there have been cases as far back as the 1960s where the only reasonable explanation was that earthquakes were being induced by disposal wells. When the U.S. Army’s Rocky Mountain Arsenal built a disposal well in 1961 to get rid of waste fluids, the seismic activity in the area increased. The well was plugged and the earthquakes stopped. A study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) determined that a “deep, hazardous waste disposal well at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal was causing significant seismic events in the vicinity of Denver.”  Another case of induced seismicity occurred in Kansas in 1989 near Palco, northwest of Hays. The largest earthquake had a magnitude of 4.0 and caused some minor damage. Several injection wells, used for the disposal of wastewater from conventional vertical oil wells, were located near a deeply buried fault zone. Investigators concluded that the earthquakes were likely induced.

Recent research shows that disposal wells are causing the earthquake swarms in Kansas and Oklahoma. There were only two or three quakes a year in Kansas and Oklahoma before 2009. That was when fracking operations started in the area and each day millions of gallons of wastewater were pumped into disposal wells. By 2015, there were about 4500 Class ll disposal wells in Oklahoma and about 1600 and Kansas. Some Class II disposal wells, which are associated with oil and gas production, were injecting as much as 15,000 barrels of disposal fluids daily.

The graph below shows the number of earthquakes in the central United States from 1973 to 2019. The number of earthquakes, mostly in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, increased dramatically as the number of disposal wells increased after 2009.  When, in 2015, the Oklahoma Corporation Commission (OCC) and the KCC started putting limits on the amount of disposal fluid that could be injected into wells near earthquake epicenters, the number of earthquakes fell off appreciably. However, that decrease may not be true for the magnitude (M).

Earthquake intensity is measured on the Richter scale. The Richter scale is a logarithmic scale, with an M3 .0 quake being 10 times stronger than an M2.0 quake, and it dissipates 32 times more energy. Earthquakes over M2.0 can be felt, those over about M3.5 can cause minor damage, and those over M4.0 are strong enough to do structural damage to buildings and infrastructure. An earthquake in Oklahoma near Pawnee, in 2016, was an M5.8 earthquake. It caused millions of dollars of damage in Oklahoma, an estimated $600,000 in damages 110 miles away in Wichita, and was felt as far away as Illinois.

Most disposal wells are drilled into the Arbuckle zone as it is porous enough to take up the fluid. The Arbuckle zone lies under the region at about 2700 feet.  The pressure of gravity on a column of saltwater that long exerts a pressure of over 1500 psi at the bottom. The drilling fluid, under that much pressure, has to go somewhere so it migrates outward from the injection wells.  As the fluid migrates, it causes an increase in pressure in the zone, labeled dP. When the increase in pressure, dP, reaches about 50 psi, it starts destabilizing ancient faults, causing earthquakes. The graph below shows how the dP has changed in south-central Kansas over the past several years, and its increase can be identified with new clusters of earthquakes.

The pink area (dP > 50 psi) began increasing near the disposal wells in Harper and Sumner Counties and, by 2014, earthquakes were beginning to start there. The pink area reached Reno County (RN) in 2017. Since then, that area has experienced 126 earthquakes of a magnitude 2.0 or greater – and the magnitude seems to the increasing over time.  Hutchinson experienced an M4.2 quake in 2019  and an M4.6 earthquake on 01/19/2021, which was felt in 20 states. In 2018, Burrton, situated between Hutchinson and Wichita, had an M4.2 earthquake. One of Burrton’s school buildings was damaged and hasn’t been used since then.  The maps only go to 2017, but the disposal fluid has been migrating outward since then, with the pink area, dP > 50, likely reaching Wichita in 2020. That’s when earthquakes began occurring in Wichita.

The Wichita area has had very few earthquakes in the past. In the period1990-2019, there was only one quake near Wichita, about 15 miles east. However, beginning in November 2020, a cluster of earthquakes occurred with the epicenters under Northeast Wichita. There were 21 earthquakes greater than M2.5, with the largest of those an M3.9 on December 30^th, which could be felt as far as 30 miles away. Minor damage occurred and Wichita citizens became concerned that there might be more and stronger quakes. Many people thought the earthquakes were caused by disposal wells in the area. The KCC and the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS) investigated and found that there were six disposal wells within a 6 mile radius and together they were only injecting a modest 9000 barrels of wastewater a day. So, the investigators concluded that there was very little link between the earthquakes and the disposal wells near Wichita.

And, the investigators were mostly right. The earthquakes were likely caused by disposal wells much further away. In 2016, the KCC limited the volume of fluid injected into disposal wells within a 6 mile radius of an earthquake’s epicenter. That 6 mile distance, establish for wells south-central Kansas, is apparently not adequate. A 2018 research study by the American Geophysical Union concluded that the earthquakes that occurred in Hutchinson were caused by an increase in fluid pressure from wells that were as much as 55 miles away. The graph of dP versus time from the KGS (Figure 2.) makes it clear that the increased pressure migrating outward from disposal wells correlates with the clusters of earthquakes.

The induced earthquakes have done millions of dollars in damage to homes, public buildings, roads, and bridges. The disposal well companies should be liable for the damages. Lawsuits to recover damages have been unsuccessful as it is not possible to link earthquake damage to any one disposal well. It has been proposed that the disposal companies carry liability insurance or voluntarily set up a fund to pay for damages. Since damages are caused by the total volume of fluid, it would be reasonable to apportion the cost among the disposal companies according to the amount of fluid they inject. Those proposals have not been well received. Many people are now buying earthquake insurance for their homes when it was not needed before. The insurance has been little help. After damages, many customers found their policies have a clause that limits payments to damage only from naturally occurring earthquakes. Even policies covering induced earthquakes have been slow to pay, claiming the damage was caused by settling or poor construction. A professional engineer can determine if the damages are caused by an earthquake, and insurance companies should be required to pay up promptly when the engineer certifies that is the case.

There have been efforts to put regulations in place to limit earthquake damage. Those have met with some success, but are clearly not adequate. Current regulations by the KCC in Kansas impose volume limits on wells within 6 miles of a known earthquake epicenter. That distance is clearly not sufficient. An effort to put limits on the volume of disposal fluid in all wells in Kansas, HB 2641, failed in the legislature after intense lobbying by the oil and gas industry. The KCC and KGS need to re-examine the research and put new guidance in place to protect private property and infrastructure and guide the legislature in protecting the citizens of Kansas.

It is clear that both Kansas and Oklahoma need to put regulations in place to limit induced earthquakes and pay for damages to infrastructure and homes. Either effective agreements, or good legislation is needed to:

1) restrict the location of disposal wells.
2) limit the amount of wastewater that can be disposed of at a site.
3) limit the pressure which can be used to inject the wastewater.
4) require that any disposal well linked to significant seismic activity be further regulated.
5) require that disposal well companies form a fund or carry liability insurance to pay for earthquake damage, and pay claims promptly.

It would be best if the disposal well industry would regulate itself by agreements. They would be happier with the outcome and it would avoid the political pressure put on the state legislatures. So far, it is the Corporation Commissions who have put what regulations there are in place. Our best hope is that they will look at the most recent research and put regulations in place which take it into account.

(C) 2021 J.C. Moore All rights reserved.

Earthquakes in the Wichita area are very rare. However, beginning in November 2020, a cluster of earthquakes occurred with the epicenters under Northeast Wichita. There were 21 earthquakes with a magnitude above 2.5 (M2.5) on the Richter scale. The largest of those was an M3.9 on December 30 which could be felt as far as 30 miles away. Many people thought the earthquakes were caused by disposal wells in the area, but the Kansas Corporation Commission (KCC) and the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS) investigated and found that there were only six disposal wells within a 6 mile radius and together they were only injecting a modest 9000 barrels of wastewater a day. That may seem like a lot, but it is a relatively small quantity compared to disposal wells in Harper and Sumner Counties where regulators found dozens of wells in 2016 pumping as much as 15,000 barrels a day. So, the investigators concluded that there was no link between the earthquakes the disposal wells near Wichita. And the investigators were mostly right. The earthquakes were likely caused by disposal wells as far as 55 miles away.

There were only two or three quakes a year in Kansas and Oklahoma before 2009. That was when fracking operations began in Oklahoma and millions of gallons of wastewater were pumped into disposal wells. The graph below shows the number of earthquakes per year in the central United States. The number of earthquakes, mostly in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, went to over 1000 a day by 2015, with one in Oklahoma in 2016 being an M5.8 earthquake. It was felt as far away as Illinois and caused an estimated $600,000 worth of damage in Wichita. When the Oklahoma Corporation Commission and the KCC put a limit on the amount of disposal fluid that could be injected into each well, the number of earthquakes fell off appreciably.

In Kansas, fracking started later, but earthquakes soon emerged as a problem as the number of disposal wells grew to more than 16,000 by 2015. Some of them were injecting as much as 15,000 barrels each day. In response to the induced earthquakes they caused, the KCC put a limit on the amount of fluid that could be injected into disposal wells within a 6 mile radius of earthquake epicenters. However, later research by the American Geophysical Union found that earthquakes could be caused by disposal wells as far as 55 miles away.

Most disposal wells inject fracking fluids into the Arbuckle zone because it is porous enough to take up the fluid. The extra fluid has to go somewhere, so it migrates outward from the injection wells, causing an increase in the fluid pressure, dP, ahead of it. The Arbuckle zone lies under the entire region, and the increase in pressure is moving North and East in the zone. When the increase in pressure, dP, reaches about 50 PSI as shown in pink, it starts destabilizing and causing slippage in ancient faults. The graph below shows how the dP has changed in south-central Kansas over the past several years, and its migraton can be identified with new clusters of earthquakes.

When the pink area (dP > 50 PSI) reached Reno County in 2017, the area began experiencing quakes. Since then, the county has experienced 126 earthquakes of a magnitude 2.0 or greater. The magnitude seems to the increasing over time.  Hutchinson experienced an M4.2 quake in 2019 and an M4.6 earthquake on 01/19/2021, which was felt in 20 states. In 2018, Burrton, situated between Hutchinson and Wichita, had an M4.2 earthquake. One of Burrton’s school buildings was damaged and hasn’t been used since then.  The map only goes to 2017, but the disposal fluid has been migrating outward since then, with the pink area, dP > 50, likely reaching Wichita in 2020. And that’s when the earthquakes began. Judging from Hutchinson’s experience, future earthquakes in the area may be stronger.

Since the earthquakes are clearly caused by the volume of fluid injected by the disposal wells, the industry should be accountable for the damage done to private and public property. In the period 1990-2012, there were only 16 earthquakes at M2.5 or greater magnitude in KS. Only one of those was greater than M4.0 and only one was near Wichita, about 15 miles East. From 2013 until today, there have been 730 earthquakes of M2.5 or greater in Kansas, 220 of them M3.0 or greater, and 9 of M4.0 or greater. The Richter scale is a logarithmic scale, so an M3 .0 quake is 10 times stronger than an M2.0 quake, and dissipates 32 times more energy. Earthquakes over M2.0 can be felt, those over about M3.5 can cause minor damage, and those over M4.0 are strong enough to do structural damage to buildings and infrastructure.

The earthquakes in Oklahoma have done millions of dollars in damages, but lawsuits to recover damages have been unsuccessful as it is not possible to link one disposal well with any given earthquake. One reasonable proposal was to have the disposal companies voluntarily create a fund which could be used to reimburse injured parties for damages. Since damages are caused by the total volume of fluid, it would be reasonable to apportion the cost among the disposal companies according to the amount of fluid they inject.

Certainly, regulations are needed to protect people’s property in Kansas. Current regulations, imposed by the KCC, only limit disposal volumes within 6 miles of earthquake epicenters. An effort to put limits on the volume of disposal fluid, KS HB 2641, failed when it died in committee. The Kansas KCC and KGS need to re-examine the research and put new guidance in place to regulate disposal wells and guide the legislature in protecting the public and private property in Kansas.

Kansas has not had exceptionally strong earthquakes yet. It has a unique opportunity to learn from what happened in Oklahoma, and take action to limit induced earthquakes and any costs to Kansas citizens. Effective agreements with the industry – or good legislation is needed to:

1. restrict the location of disposal wells.
2. limit the amount of wastewater that can be disposed of at a site.
3. limit the pressure which can be used to inject the wastewater.
4. require that any disposal well linked to significant seismic activity be further regulated.
5. require that disposal well companies create a fund or carry liability insurance to pay for earthquake damage.

Without effective action, the earthquakes are likely to grow worse. If the disposal wells connot be regulated, then at least the disposal well companies should compensate people and taxpayers for the damage.

© 2021 – J.C. Moore All rights reserved.

The proposed Kansas House Bill 2641 will limit the amount of  fracking disposal fluids that can be injected at a given site. It is a start, but Kansas needs to learn from Oklahoma’s experience and be proactive in limiting induced earthquakes from disposal wells.

Rationale:  Historically, Oklahoma has had very few earthquakes. The graph below shows that Oklahoma had an average of about two earthquakes per year up until about 2008, when horizontal drilling and fracking began to be used to recover gas and oil. Along with the increase in fracking, came the need for disposal wells to get rid of the waste water from the fracking operations. And along with the wastewater disposal wells, came an increase in earthquakes.

For some reason, it took Oklahoma a long time to link the two and take effective action, even though the link has been known for decades. When the U.S. Army’s Rocky Mountain Arsenal built a disposal well in 1961 to get rid of waste fluids, seismic activity in the area increased. The well was plugged and the earthquakes stopped. A study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) determined that the “deep, hazardous waste disposal well at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal was causing significant seismic events in the vicinity of Denver, Colorado.”

Our experience:  In November of 2011, an earthquake measuring 5.6 rattled Oklahoma and was felt as far away as Illinois. We were living in Terlton, Oklahoma at the time and felt several earthquakes, including that one. Small cracks appeared in our sheet rock and in the foundation of our house. When we sold our house in Terlton to move back to Kansas, the mortgage company insisted the damage be inspected by a structural engineer. Structural engineers were in great demand at the time to inspect earthquake damage and it caused a long delay. Our house passed the inspection but we had the added delays and expense of hiring the structural engineer. Other people have not been so lucky.

Damage: A search on Google for “newspaper articles on earthquake damage in Oklahoma”, gave 2,270,000 hits and there are thousands of pictures showing the earthquake damage in Oklahoma, such as these:

Some of the damage has extended as far north as Wichita, as shown by these pictures:

Fracking related earthquakes have caused millions of dollars of property damage in Oklahoma, and many Oklahoma residents are now purchasing earthquake insurance, when it was never needed before. Many Kansas residents are also wondering if they need to undergo the additional expense of earthquake insurance. The damage costs to public utilities, buildings, roads, and bridges are born by taxpayers. Although there have been several lawsuits in Oklahoma against disposal well companies, very little money has been recovered to pay for induced earthquake damages.

Further action:  Kansas has a unique opportunity to learn from what happened in Oklahoma, and take action to limit induced earthquakes and the cost to Kansas citizens. Effective legislation is needed to:

1) restrict the location of disposal wells.
2) limit the amount of wastewater that can be disposed of at a site.
3) limit the pressure which can be used to inject the wastewater.
4) require that any disposal well linked to significant seismic activity be further regulated.
5) require that disposal well companies carry liability insurance and pay earthquake damage claims promptly.

Kansas House Bill 2641 is certainly a step in the right direction. It addresses number 2) above and asks that every county in Kansas be under the same regulations by the KCC to keep volume at 8,000 barrels per day, which is considered a level that minimizes earthquakes. That is a start, but more legislation is needed.

Note! It wasn’t a start after all. KS HB 2641 died in committee.

(c) 2018  – J.C. Moore

Oklahoma is now coming in near last in most measures of civilized society, yet it is still cutting taxes – even as the Capitol Building is falling down. Generous in their hearts, the state Legislature has dug deep into the states resources to find a few hundred  million to continue its subsidies for state businesses.

One little-known act of generosity is the subsidies to the state coal mining industry. They’ve had a tough time of it, as Oklahoma’s coal is high in sulfur and is not worth much on the fuel market. Over the years the subsidy has been increased from $1 per ton to $5 or $10, no one is quite sure. Estimates are that the subsidies are costing the state about $16 million per year. That is not much when you consider what Oklahomans get for it, richer insurance companies and air pollution.

The subsidy is paid as a tax credit, but the coal mines are mostly unprofitable and pay very little in taxes. The laws were a little vague about what to do with the leftover credits, so the coal companies were  selling them to insurance companies at a discount, providing cash for the coal companies and a few million dollars per year for our struggling insurance companies. That cushy deal was cut out of couple of years ago, and the coal mines are now required to return the credits to the state for $0.85 on the dollar.

Since nobody really wants to buy Oklahoma’s coal, the Legislature required that Oklahoma’s coal-fired power plants buy and use 10% of it to generate power. Since many of the power plants do not have adequate pollution control and scrubbers, the high sulfur coal produces more particulates and aerosols, which are considered air pollution by that interfering old EPA.

The state Legislature is now working on a bill which will put a three-year moratorium on building new wind farms in the Eastern Oklahoma while they study the problem. There are 27 windfarms in Western Oklahoma and a number of reports about their success, but apparently it will take the legislature three years to get around to looking at them. I brought that up as the Legislature seems much less curious about the relationship between fracking and earthquakes.

A bill to put a three-year moratorium on fracking while the problem is studied – would likely get little support in the state Legislature. Besides, that would leave a lot of money in the Legislature’s pocket with no place to spend it. While digging around for money to support the coal industry, the Legislature turned up an extra $200 million or so, which they are now using to subsidize fracking in Oklahoma. The legislature thinks the subsidy is important as it keeps our frackers from moving out of state, though some tightwad skeptics have pointed out that the frackers are probably here because that’s where the natural gas is.

It seems that there’s been a small increase in earthquakes in Oklahoma since fracking started, as shown in the graph. However our state Legislators are not big on graphical data, as it might involve statistics and is most likely based on models or something like that that you can’t trust. And they are not much for research either, as it appears that the federal government has known for decades about the link between injection wells and earthquakes.

A number of our citizens, particularly those whose walls and foundations are developing cracks, or those whose chimneys and other stonework are falling down, are beginning to wonder. Getting back to that crumbling infrastructure, there’s been a lot of unusual damage lately to roads and bridges in areas prone to earthquakes. And then there is the problem with the crumbling Capitol Building. Unfortunately, we will never know the cause as the Legislature just doesn’t have the time or money to study the problem.

(C) 2014 J.C. Moore